A two-speed market has emerged, and it's driven by rates, not sentiment.

• Sydney and Melbourne are correcting, while Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane are forecast to keep growing toward record highs (Domain's FY27 forecast). National listings are down 8.2% versus the five-year average, and capital city home sales are down 16.2% year-on-year, with auction clearance rates sitting below 50% since late May.

• Interest rates are back in motion. After holding at 4.35%, CBA and ANZ are both flagging a further 0.25-point hike for November 2026, with NAB pointing to September. Canstar's modelling shows a further hike would add roughly $91/month to repayments on a $600k loan (about $363/month across the year's cumulative hikes) — a concrete, quotable number for client conversations happening right now.

• Affordability pressure is reshaping buyer behaviour: apartments are holding value better than houses through the downturn as buyers trade houses for units, and established apartments are being described as available "considerably below replacement cost" in some capital markets.

• Most economists expect conditions to stay soft into 2027, with a gradual turn beginning around mid-2027 as rate cuts start flowing through — meaning the next 6-9 months are a "get ahead of it" window rather than a "wait it out" one.

The momentum here isn't a seasonal spike — it's a rate/affordability shift with a clear window: clients who lock in strategy and finance structure now are better positioned for when borrowing capacity lifts.